Methodology

What we compute, and from what

Everything on this site is derived from three inputs: match results, the match schedule, and ICC penalty announcements. We do not copy standings from other websites; the table is recalculated from the raw match log every time the site is built.

Scoring follows the ICC WTC playing conditions: 12 points for a win, 6 for a tie, 4 for a draw, 0 for a loss, minus 1 point per over short in over-rate sanctions. PCT is points after penalties divided by the maximum points available from matches played.

Verification

After every data change, an automated check compares our computed table against a verified snapshot of the officially published table. The build fails if a single number differs.

A twice-daily sync job fetches completed results from public scorecard sources (primarily Wikipedia's WTC match summaries, themselves sourced from ICC and ESPNcricinfo). New results are applied only when the recomputed table matches the published standings. Mismatches are held for review instead of being published silently.

Qualification labels

Maximum PCT assumes a team wins every remaining Test; minimum PCT assumes it loses them all. A team is marked mathematically eliminated only when at least two other teams are guaranteed to finish above its maximum. A team controls its fate only when at most one other team could out-score its all-wins ceiling.

These bounds treat teams independently. Because contenders still play each other, reality is slightly kinder than the conservative labels; we prefer to under-claim.

Predictor assumptions

The predictor applies exactly the same scoring engine to hypothetical results. Its quick-fill options are conveniences, not forecasts. No option is an official ICC probability.

Known limitations

Some fixtures late in the cycle have unconfirmed dates or venues; they are marked approximate. The fourth WTC tiebreaker (ICC Test rankings on 1 April 2027) cannot be computed in advance.

When we get something wrong, the fix is logged publicly with the before and after values on the corrections page.